Stability, sensitivity and uncertainty rates in the flow equations of ecological models

Abstract

In previous work by the authors about dynamic system modeling, basic ecosystems concepts and their application to ecological modeling theory were formalized. Measuring how a variable effects certain processes leads to improvements in dynamic systems modelling and facilitates the author’s study of system diversity in which model sensitivity is a key theme. Initially, some variables and their numeric data are used for modeling. Predictions from the constructed models depend on these data. Generic study of sensitivity aims to show to what degree model behavior is altered by modification of some specific data. If small variations cause important modifications in the model’s global behavior then the model is very sensitive in relation to the variables used. If uncertain systems are considered, then it is important to submit the system to extreme situations and analyze its behavior. In this article, some indexes of uncertainty will be defined in order to determine the variables' influence in the case of extreme changes. This will permit analysis of the system’s sensitivity in relation to several simulations.