Sustainable Development, Stakeholder Engagement and Analyst Forecasts’ Accuracy: Positive Evidence from the Spanish Setting

Abstract

This study looks into the effects of voluntary sustainability reporting in analysts’ earnings forecasts as a driver for sustainable development. The methodology used is based on a regression model to test whether the issuance of a CSR stand-alone report affects analysts’ forecast errors and forecast dispersion. Forecast error refers to the difference between the forecasted earnings per share (EPS) and the actual EPS. Dispersion refers to the standard deviation in EPS forecasts between analysts following the same firm. Our study in the Spanish context includes 527 observations from listed firms and covers the period 2005–2010. We provide evidence that there is a negative statistically significant association between the absolute forecast earnings error and the publication of a sustainability report. However, we find that the CSR reports have lost power in reducing the earnings forecast error if we compare analysts' activity before the financial crisis and during the crisis itself, so we open up a question for future research to check whether this is a consistent trend or whether in times of economic recovery this phenomenon regains power. The main conclusion of this paper points to the importance of sustainable development and stakeholder engagement through the issuance of CSR reports, which can help the smooth running of capital markets in a context of increasing sensitiveness to social responsible investment. Our study in this field is pioneering in the Spanish setting, which is especially interesting given the growing trend to publish CSR reports in this country.