Confidence and Communication Preferences on Weather Forecasts among University Students in Spain
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Título: | Confidence and Communication Preferences on Weather Forecasts among University Students in Spain |
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Autor/es: | Gómez, Igor | Valor Micó, Enric | Molina-Palacios, Sergio | Niclòs, Raquel | Caselles, Vicente |
Grupo/s de investigación o GITE: | Grupo de Ingeniería y Riesgo Sísmico (GIRS) |
Centro, Departamento o Servicio: | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Física Aplicada | Universidad de Alicante. Instituto Multidisciplinar para el Estudio del Medio "Ramón Margalef" |
Palabras clave: | Atmosphere | Social Science | Europe | Forecasting | Numerical weather prediction/forecasting | Operational forecasting | Communications/decision-making | Education |
Fecha de publicación: | 22-jun-2022 |
Editor: | American Meteorological Society |
Cita bibliográfica: | Weather, Climate, and Society. 2022, 14(3): 737-753. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0100.1 |
Resumen: | Weather forecasts affect many persons’ lives and are used by the general public on a daily basis. However, they are not perfect, and there is an uncertainty associated with the current weather forecasts; users should be aware of this uncertainty. Previous research analyzes the perceptions, uses, and interpretations of uncertainty of Spanish undergraduate students. This study continues with this research line, but we investigate the degree of confidence and communication preferences of students enrolled in three meteorology-related subjects taught at two universities in Spain. We evaluated to what extent students trust in the current weather forecasts and analyzed how students are aware of the uncertainty associated with the forecasts considering different lead times. In addition, we assessed how students value the forecast of several weather elements as well as the students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts under two weather situations, with different degree of complexity in the forecast communication. A Google Form questionnaire was developed to address these issues. The survey was conducted in 2018/19, and 101 participants anonymously filled out the survey. Participants were enrolled in three different subjects taught in the degree in marine sciences at the University of Alicante and the degrees in environmental sciences and physics at the University of Valencia. Results show that students have a well-formed opinion of weather forecasts, both for confidence and in relation to the trend found in the current weather forecasts toward less accurate forecasts for larger lead times. For students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts, a significant majority of participants prefer weather forecasts that incorporate some uncertainty; a minority prefer single-valued (deterministic) forecasts. In comparing our results with those found in previous studies in different countries and contexts, similar outcomes are observed in general, but some differences are highlighted as well. |
Patrocinador/es: | This work has been funded by the Assistance Programmes of the University of Alicante “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2018-19. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4334],” “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2019-20. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4669],” and “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2020-21. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [5150].” |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10045/126889 |
ISSN: | 1948-8327 (Print) | 1948-8335 (Online) |
DOI: | 10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0100.1 |
Idioma: | eng |
Tipo: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Derechos: | © 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). |
Revisión científica: | si |
Versión del editor: | https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0100.1 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | INV - GIRS - Artículos de Revistas |
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Gomez_etal_2022_WeatherClimateSociety_final.pdf | 661,47 kB | Adobe PDF | Abrir Vista previa | |
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