Aggregate GDP and the economy sectors in Ecuador: A time series study

Abstract

This study determines the relationship between the aggregate GDP and the economic sectors of Ecuador in the period 2000-2018, through a time series analysis. The analysis is performed from two approaches: first, through a multiple linear regression model that allows determining the relationship between variables, and second, through an independent cointegration analysis for each set of variables. The dependent variable corresponds to GDP by the production approach and six independent variables that group the Gross Value Added. The results highlight manufacturing as the activity with the highest relationship with GVA, where by increasing manufacturing GVA by one percentage point, GDP will increase by 0.33 percentage points. Cointegration analysis is performed for each set of variables, and highlights trade as the only activity that shares a common trend with GDP.