Was Spanish debt sustainable? A debt sustainability analysis between 1850 and 1913

Abstract

At the end of the nineteenth century, Spain suffered from constant budget deficits. This article seeks to establish whether the Spanish debt was sustainable or not between 1850 and 1913 and how debt sustainability changed due to the various policies implemented by policymakers. This paper sheds new light on the analysis of Spanish fiscal solvency by estimating Bohn’s test (fiscal reaction function). The results are interpreted using narrative evidence and data from previous studies. The findings reveal that Spanish debt was unsustainable between 1850 and 1902 while the debt restructuring of Raimundo Fernández Villaverde made the Spanish public debt sustainable from 1902.