Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO2 concentration from 1950 to 2100

Abstract

A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO2 in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite observations and meteorological predictions, as a forcing. The concentration of CO2 inside the cave was then investigated from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios. It is found that extreme levels of CO2 were reached during the period 1950–1972 due to the massive affluence of visitors. It is demonstrated that it is possible to monitor the CO2 in the cave in real time using satellite information as an external forcing. For the future, it is shown that the maximum values of CO2 will exceed the levels reached during the 1980s and the 1990s when the CO2 introduced by the touristic visits, although intentionally reduced, still enhanced considerably the micro corrosion of walls and pigments.