Using poisson model for goal prediction in European football
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10045/107443
Title: | Using poisson model for goal prediction in European football |
---|---|
Authors: | Inan, Tugbay |
Keywords: | Poisson Model | Goal | Football | Soccer | Prediction | European leagues |
Knowledge Area: | Educación Física y Deportiva |
Issue Date: | 2021 |
Publisher: | Universidad de Alicante. Área de Educación Física y Deporte |
Citation: | Journal of Human Sport and Exercise. 2021, 16(4): 942-955. https://doi.org/10.14198/jhse.2021.164.16 |
Abstract: | Predicting the features of behaviour of big data and multivariable systems has been a research subject in various fields of science. When it comes to football, as it is a field of sports followed by the whole world, the number of studies carried out aiming at predicting the results of football games has been increasing in the field of football science. Although the result of a football match depends on various variables, it is mainly determined over the offensive and defensive strengths of the teams. Different variables have so far been determined in the literature to figure out these strengths of the teams. In this study, it was aimed to predict correctly how many goals a team could score or concede in the last 5 weeks based on the average number of goals they scored and conceded since the beginning of the season in 6 European leagues. For this reason, a Poisson distribution model was established based on these offensive and defensive strengths. A total of 4264 matches and 5938 goals were analysed in the study and the established model yielded affirmative results at the level of 50% in the leagues analysed. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10045/107443 |
ISSN: | 1988-5202 |
DOI: | 10.14198/jhse.2021.164.16 |
Language: | eng |
Type: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Rights: | This work is licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). |
Peer Review: | si |
Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.14198/jhse.2021.164.16 |
Appears in Collections: | Journal of Human Sport and Exercise - 2021, Vol. 16, No. 4 |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
JHSE_16-4_16.pdf | 372,05 kB | Adobe PDF | Open Preview | |
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License