Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: a Mediterranean tourism perspective

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Title: Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: a Mediterranean tourism perspective
Authors: Perles Ribes, José Francisco | Ramón-Rodríguez, Ana B. | Moreno-Izquierdo, Luis | Torregrosa, Teresa
Research Group/s: Economía del Turismo, Recursos Naturales y Nuevas Tecnologías (INNATUR) | Internacionalización de la Empresa y Comercio Exterior | Recursos Hídricos y Desarrollo Sostenible
Center, Department or Service: Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Análisis Económico Aplicado
Keywords: Arab spring | Mediterranean countries | Time series | Bayesian methods
Knowledge Area: Economía Aplicada
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: Routledge
Citation: Current Issues in Tourism. 2018, 21(16): 1810-1829. doi:10.1080/13683500.2016.1225697
Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of the recent Arab uprisings on tourism destinations located along the Mediterranean coastline. It uses time-series analysis to model international tourist arrivals. First, autoregressive integrated moving average models are estimated for the period 1980–2009 and predicted for 2010–2014 to establish suitable country controls. Second, Bayesian structural time-series models – designed primarily to determine causal impacts in on-line marketing campaigns – are used to establish the effects of the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Spain and Greece. The main conclusion is that the models clearly capture the negative impact of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt and their positive impacts on Morocco and Turkey. However, the effects on Spain and Greece are less clear and depend crucially on the set of controls used in the analysis.
ISSN: 1368-3500 (Print) | 1747-7603 (Online)
DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2016.1225697
Language: eng
Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Rights: © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
Peer Review: si
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Appears in Collections:INV - INNATUR - Artículos de Revistas
INV - Recursos Hídricos y Desarrollo Sostenible - Artículos de Revistas
INV - Internacionalización de la Empresa y Comercio Exterior - Artículos de Revistas
INV - ECO-IA - Artículos de Revistas

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