Methodological proposal to determine explosive tourism growth: a warning for unsustainable development?

Abstract

Sustainability is a crucial aspect of tourism growth and development. This paper suggests the adaptation of a methodology originally designed for analysing explosive behaviour in financial market time series to assess the explosive behaviour of demand pressure in tourist destinations. The proposed methodology could function as an early warning system for potential issues such as over-tourism by identifying further unsustainable growth in destinations. The methodology is exemplified by examining the long-term evolution of tourism pressure in both Spain as a whole, and in Barcelona, which is a destination frequently scrutinised in the literature and media due to perceived over-tourism. The findings suggest explosive behaviour in tourism pressure, especially in the case of Barcelona, from which valuable lessons can be learned and meaningful conclusions drawn.