Perceptions, Uses, and Interpretations of Uncertainty in Current Weather Forecasts by Spanish Undergraduate Students
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Título: | Perceptions, Uses, and Interpretations of Uncertainty in Current Weather Forecasts by Spanish Undergraduate Students |
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Autor/es: | Gómez, Igor | Molina-Palacios, Sergio | Olcina, Jorge | Galiana-Merino, Juan José |
Grupo/s de investigación o GITE: | Grupo de Ingeniería y Riesgo Sísmico (GIRS) | Clima y Ordenación del Territorio | Grupo de Investigación en Historia y Clima |
Centro, Departamento o Servicio: | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Física Aplicada | Universidad de Alicante. Instituto Multidisciplinar para el Estudio del Medio "Ramón Margalef" | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Análisis Geográfico Regional y Geografía Física | Universidad de Alicante. Instituto Interuniversitario de Geografía | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Física, Ingeniería de Sistemas y Teoría de la Señal | Universidad de Alicante. Instituto Universitario de Física Aplicada a las Ciencias y las Tecnologías |
Palabras clave: | Atmosphere | Social Science | Risk assessment | Forecast verification/skill | Numerical weather prediction/forecasting | Communications/decision making |
Área/s de conocimiento: | Física de la Tierra | Análisis Geográfico Regional | Teoría de la Señal y Comunicaciones |
Fecha de publicación: | 30-nov-2020 |
Editor: | American Meteorological Society |
Cita bibliográfica: | Weather, Climate, and Society. 2021, 13(1): 83-94. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0048.1 |
Resumen: | This quantitative study evaluates how 71 Spanish undergraduate students perceive and interpret the uncertainty inherent to deterministic forecasts. It is based on several questions that asked participants what they expect given a forecast presented under the deterministic paradigm for a specific lead time and a particular weather parameter. In this regard, both normal and extreme weather conditions were studied. Students’ responses to the temperature forecast as it is usually presented in the media expect an uncertainty range of ±1°–2°C. For wind speed, uncertainty shows a deviation of ±5–10 km h−1, and the uncertainty range assigned to the precipitation amount shows a deviation of ±30 mm from the specific value provided in a deterministic format. Participants perceive the minimum night temperatures as the least-biased parameter from the deterministic forecast, while the amount of rain is perceived as the most-biased one. In addition, participants were then asked about their probabilistic threshold for taking appropriate precautionary action under distinct decision-making scenarios of temperature, wind speed, and rain. Results indicate that participants have different probabilistic thresholds for taking protective action and that context and presentation influence forecast use. Participants were also asked about the meaning of the probability-of-precipitation (PoP) forecast. Around 40% of responses reformulated the default options, and around 20% selected the correct answer, following previous studies related to this research topic. As a general result, it has been found that participants infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts, and they are mostly used to take action in the presence of decision-making scenarios. In contrast, more difficulties were found when interpreting probabilistic forecasts. |
Patrocinador/es: | This work has been funded by the Assistance Programme of University of Alicante “Programa de Redes-I3CE de calidad, innovación e investigación en docencia universitaria. Convocatoria 2019-20. Alicante: Instituto de Ciencias de la Educación (ICE) de la Universidad de Alicante. Ref: [4669].” |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10045/112879 |
ISSN: | 1948-8327 (Print) | 1948-8335 (Online) |
DOI: | 10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0048.1 |
Idioma: | eng |
Tipo: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Derechos: | © 2020 American Meteorological Society |
Revisión científica: | si |
Versión del editor: | https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0048.1 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | INV - GIRS - Artículos de Revistas INV - CyOT - Artículos de Revistas INV - HYC - Artículos de Revistas |
Archivos en este ítem:
Archivo | Descripción | Tamaño | Formato | |
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Gomez_etal_2021_WeatherClimateSoc_final.pdf | 516,23 kB | Adobe PDF | Abrir Vista previa | |
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