A scoring system to predict 5‐year mortality in patients diagnosed with laryngeal glottic cancer

Abstract

Only one prognostic model for laryngeal cancer has been published, but it has not been properly validated and is only applicable to patients treated with radiotherapy. Consequently, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in an App (Android), a predictive model of 5‐year mortality in patients with glottic cancer in a cohort study of 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004–2016 in Spain. The main variable was time‐to‐death. Secondary variables were age, gender, TNM, stage, smoking, alcohol consumption, histology and treatment. A scoring system to predict mortality at 5 years was constructed, validated internally by bootstrapping and then integrated into an Android app. In all, 70 patients died (37.0%, 76 deaths per 1,000 patient‐years). The predictive model had the following prognostic factors: larger tumour size, greater degree of lymph node metastasis, higher stage, smoking and alcohol consumption. The internal validation of the model through bootstrapping was satisfactory. In conclusion, a points system to predict mortality at 5 years in patients with glottic cancer has been constructed, internally validated and integrated into an Android application. External validation is suggested to make available a quick and simple tool to establish the prognosis for these patients.