Policy determinants affecting the hunger millennium development goal

Abstract

The possible effect of Government Consumption (a component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)) on attainment of the hunger Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) was analyzed by evaluating the effect of macroeconomic, social, demographic and policy variables on average undernourished population. Eighty-four developing countries with data available on undernourished population were included in an ecological study. Regression models were applied to explore possible determinants of Undernourished between 1990 and 2004 and consequent achievement of the projected 2004 MDG1. In 2004, 1.4% of the overall undernourished population in the studied countries [70.16 million people] was in excess of the projected level required to meet MDG1. The multiple linear regression showed significant associations between Undernourished and poverty levels, the Gini Index, rural population and Government Consumption. The multiple logistic regression showed significant associations between achievement of projected 2004 MDG1 levels and Government Consumption and the Gini Index. The significant associations between Undernourished and Government Consumption suggest that the effects of GDP components on social conditions call for more thorough research and that policymakers such as governments and international financial institutions need to ensure that changes in distributive and redistributive policies do not negatively affect the possibility of achieving MDG1.